A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline responses to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995–2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model’s predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010–2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size-dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S. obovata population growth rate , and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant–consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short-lived species, like S. obovata, seedling herbivory can have less of an effect on the dynamics of plant populations than decreased interannual precipitation

The secret of success

Parts of Antarctica have experienced warming almost an order of magnitude greater than the global average over the past 50 years, with the Antarctic Peninsula ranking among the three fastest-warming regions on Earth. Antarctic ecosystems have been affected by the warming that has taken place. Perhaps the most notable impact has been a dramatic expansion of the two species of flowering plant that occur on the continent \u2014 Antarctic pearlwort and Antarctic hair gras

Changes in the sense of agency : Implications for the psychotherapy of bulimia nervosa- A case study

A sense of agency is a transtheoretical concept that increases our understanding of important processes in psychotherapy. Agency can be described in terms of how strongly the person believes that she can have an impact on her problematic experiences and behaviors. In this case study, a patient's sense of agency in relation to symptoms of bulimia nervosa was assessed during 3 years of psychotherapy. Five distinct phases of agency in relation to eating disorder symptoms were identified: A false sense of agency or no agency at all, a weak sense of agency, a nascent sense of agency, a wavering sense of agency, and a strong sense of agency. A better understanding of patient agency can facilitate adapting approaches and methods best suited for the patient's capacity for change throughout treatment.Peer reviewe

The soil and plant biogeochemistry sampling design for The National Ecological Observatory Network

Human impacts on biogeochemical cycles are evident around the world, from changes to forest structure and function due to atmospheric deposition, to eutrophication of surface waters from agricultural effluent, and increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will contribute to understanding human effects on biogeochemical cycles from local to continental scales. The broad NEON biogeochemistry measurement design focuses on measuring atmospheric deposition of reactive mineral compounds and CO2 fluxes, ecosystem carbon (C) and nutrient stocks, and surface water chemistry across 20 eco‐climatic domains within the United States for 30 yr. Herein, we present the rationale and plan for the ground‐based measurements of C and nutrients in soils and plants based on overarching or “high‐level” requirements agreed upon by the National Science Foundation and NEON. The resulting design incorporates early recommendations by expert review teams, as well as recent input from the larger natural sciences community that went into the formation and interpretation of the requirements, respectively. NEON\u27s efforts will focus on a suite of data streams that will enable end‐users to study and predict changes to biogeochemical cycling and transfers within and across air, land, and water systems at regional to continental scales. At each NEON site, there will be an initial, one‐time effort to survey soil properties to 1 m (including soil texture, bulk density, pH, baseline chemistry) and vegetation community structure and diversity. A sampling program will follow, focused on capturing long‐term trends in soil C, nitrogen (N), and sulfur stocks, isotopic composition (of C and N), soil N transformation rates, phosphorus pools, and plant tissue chemistry and isotopic composition (of C and N). To this end, NEON will conduct extensive measurements of soils and plants within stratified random plots distributed across each site. The resulting data will be a new resource for members of the scientific community interested in addressing questions about long‐term changes in continental‐scale biogeochemical cycles, and is predicted to inspire further process‐based research

The role of intraspecific competition in the dispersal of an invasive fish

1. Ponto‐Caspian gobies are among the most successful fish invaders in inland waters of Europe and in the Great Lakes of North America. Their invasions appear to comprise a combination of passive and active dispersal mechanisms, both natural and human‐mediated. Despite the significance of Ponto‐Caspian gobies as invasive species, there is little information about the mechanisms underpinning their dispersal. They are relatively small benthic fish, with high site affinity. Thus, actively dispersing individuals must express a behavioural motivation to engage in persistent directional movement. 2. Several recent studies have suggested that inter‐individual behavioural differences in boldness, activity level and tendency to explore might underpin dispersal. In addition, because males are highly territorial, intraspecific competition may lead to density‐dependent dispersal of subordinate individuals. To date, studies on this subject have focused mainly on comparisons between individuals from the core of established populations with those at the margins and, thus, address the outcome of dispersal rather than the mechanism itself. 3. We conducted a series of experiments on the racer goby Babka gymnotrachelus to address the question of what behavioural and physiological traits predict the tendency of an individual to perform dispersal behaviour, specifically considering the role of conspecifics in influencing the tendency to disperse. We used an artificial channel to measure dispersal tendency in this species in combination with behavioural trials. 4. Our results showed that fish with a greater tendency to disperse in an experimental channel grew more slowly and were bolder; that is displayed a greater propensity to emerge from a cryptic background onto a white background and performed worse in prey capture trials. As predicted, intraspecific competition played a primary role in the dispersal of the racer goby. Dominant males showed a tendency to monopolise limited shelters with an outcome that subordinates were forced to disperse upstream. The specific growth rate of individuals appeared to be a good indicator of social position. Subordinate males expressed the lowest rates of growth, probably as a result of long‐term deprivation of food in the presence of dominant conspecifics. They were also quicker to explore novel environments, possibly to search for food. Contrary to expectations, subordinate individuals performed relatively poorly in feeding trials when tested individually. 5. Our findings suggest that intraspecific competition in racer goby males is an important mechanism for active dispersal. It can also influence inter‐individual variation in traits such as boldness and tendency to explore novel environments. Similar responses to competitive interactions may have encouraged the invasive expansion of other Ponto‐Caspian gobies following establishment in new environments, as well as other fish species that exhibit territorial behaviour

Rates of species introduction to a remote oceanic island

The introduction of species to areas beyond the limits of their natural distributions has a major homogenizing influence, making previously distinct biotas more similar. The scale of introductions has frequently been commented on, but their rate and spatial pervasiveness have been less well quantified. Here, we report the findings of a detailed study of pterygote insect introductions to Gough Island, one of the most remote and supposedly pristine temperate oceanic islands, and estimate the rate at which introduced species have successfully established. Out of 99 species recorded from Gough Island, 71 are established introductions, the highest proportion documented for any Southern Ocean island. Estimating a total of approximately 233 landings on Gough Island since first human landfall, this equates to one successful establishment for every three to four landings. Generalizations drawn from other areas suggest that this may be only one-tenth of the number of pterygote species that have arrived at the island, implying that most landings may lead to the arrival of at least one alien. These rates of introduction of new species are estimated to be two to three orders of magnitude greater than background levels for Gough Island, an increase comparable to that estimated for global species extinctions (many of which occur on islands) as a consequence of human activities

Potential of global croplands and bioenergy crops for climate change mitigation through deployment for enhanced weathering.

Conventional row crop agriculture for both food and fuel is a source of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, and intensifying production on agricultural land increases the potential for soil C loss and soil acidification due to fertilizer use. Enhanced weathering (EW) in agricultural soils-applying crushed silicate rock as a soil amendment-is a method for combating global climate change while increasing nutrient availability to plants. EW uses land that is already producing food and fuel to sequester carbon (C), and reduces N2O loss through pH buffering. As biofuel use increases, EW in bioenergy crops offers the opportunity to sequester CO2 while reducing fossil fuel combustion. Uncertainties remain in the long-term effects and global implications of large-scale efforts to directly manipulate Earth's atmospheric CO2 composition, but EW in agricultural lands is an opportunity to employ these soils to sequester atmospheric C while benefitting crop production and the global climate

Nutrient availability and invasive fish jointly drive community dynamics in an experimental aquatic system

Species invasions increasingly occur alongside other forms of ecosystem change, highlighting the need to understand how invasion outcomes are influenced by environmental factors. Within freshwaters, two of the most widespread drivers of change are introduced fishes and nutrient loading, yet it remains difficult to predict how interactions between these drivers affect invasion success and consequences for native communities. To test competing theories about interactions between nutrients and invasions, we conducted a 2 × 3 factorial mesocosm experiment, varying western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) presence and nutrient availability within aquatic communities. Based on theory, increased nutrients could either (1) facilitate coexistence between predatory mosquitofish and native species by increasing prey availability (the invader attenuation hypothesis) or (2) strengthen predation effects by enhancing fish productivity more than native community members (the invader amplification hypothesis). In outdoor mesocosms designed to mimic observed nutrient conditions and local community structure, mosquitofish directly reduced the abundances of zooplankton and three native amphibian species, leading to indirect increases in phytoplankton, periphyton, and freshwater snail biomass through trophic cascades. Nutrient additions increased native amphibian growth but had especially pronounced effects on the productivity of invasive mosquitofish. The elevated nutrient condition supported ~5 times more juvenile mosquitofish and 30% higher biomass than the low nutrient condition. Increased nutrients levels did not weaken the top‐down effects of mosquitofish on invertebrates or amphibians. Collectively, our results support the invader amplification hypothesis, suggesting that increased nutrient loading may benefit invasive species without attenuating their undesirable effects on native community members.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143635/1/ecs22153_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143635/2/ecs22153.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143635/3/ecs22153-sup-0001-AppendixS1.pd